Hezbollah: Steering Clear of the STL

Speculation has been rife in Lebanon’s political salons about the real reasons underlying the latest government crisis. Theories abound, often admittedly unsupported by facts.

Many link Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s decision to suspend Cabinet meetings to the impending renewal of the mandate of the the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) probing the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. Mikati, the thinking goes, wants to let the end of February deadline pass without having to clash with Hezbollah over the issue.

This theory has yet to be proven, and Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun has dismissed it as off the mark. While that should become apparent over the next few days, senior politicians in the March 8 coalition agree that Mikati has no need to “run away” from the STL issue.

Hezbollah, they say, is not going to demand an amendment to the cooperation protocol between Lebanon and the STL. All it wants is for the government not to bestow any more legitimacy on the Tribunal. That means avoiding any Lebanese involvement in the process of renewing its mandate.

Hezbollah reasons that whatever view the Lebanese government takes on renewing the STL’s mandate, the UN will not consider it binding anyway. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon wants the mandate renewed for three years. When Ban said that to President Michel Suleiman on January 13, he made no comment in response.

Mikati, for his part, will not agree to lead a government that attempts undermine the work of the STL. He believes that would put his Sunni leadership credentials in jeopardy.

Hezbollah recognizes, therefore, that there is no stopping the STL, which it sees as a tool in a broader scheme aimed at hammering the resistance.

Hence its decision not to seek an amendment of the accord, which was endorsed by the UN Security Council in Resolution 1757. According to high-level March 8 sources, the party believes that this would not only be futile in practice, but also would amount to tacit recognition of the STL’s legitimacy.

But it is not just that the international balance of power rules out any prospect of serious changes being made to the legal framework of the STL.

The situation closer to home, in Syria, also has a bearing.

People familiar with Hezbollah’s thinking say developments across Lebanon’s eastern and northern borders deter the party from doing anything that might jeopardize the survival of the Mikati government.

“If Syria were stable,” says one source, Hezbollah “would have begun a battle over amending the protocol and renewing the mandate.”

The source added that Hezbollah would have insisted that the government clearly express a position challenging the legitimacy of the Tribunal.

In so doing, Hezbollah would not have cared whether the government survived or not. Having ousted Saad Hariri from the premiership, the party had expected the new government to be far more effective than it has proven. It was hoping to have achievements to show, which could be held up as a model of how Lebanon could be governed, unlike it had been since the Syrian withdrawal, or even the Taif accords.

But the situation in Syria makes the party think differently. It wants to avoid taking any step that might, at least in theory, bring the March 14 coalition back into government.

This is a possibility considering that the position of Walid Jumblatt and his parliamentary bloc, which could tip the balance one way or another, is not clear.

Moreover, during the crisis that preceded the present government’s formation, Suleiman had told March 8 representatives that he would consider himself relieved of any commitments he had made to them if Mikati failed to put together a Cabinet or resigned. The president warned at the time that he would not feel obliged to prevent March 14 from forming a narrow government if consultations with MPs gave it the upper hand.

This being the case, Hezbollah is asking just one thing of the present government: to ignore any message it receives from the UN secretary-general about consultations over the length of time it will take to renew the STL’s mandate.

According to March 8 sources, Mikati has been apprised of this position directly. When he met with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah after a November 30 Cabinet decision on funding the STL was skirted, the two men firmed up their areas of common ground in relation to the government’s work.

It was also agreed that Mikati would spring no surprise decisions on Hezbollah that would negatively impact their relationship or the survival of the government – especially not over the STL.

This article is an edited translation from the Arabic Edition.