Mubarak’s verdict: ancien Arab regimes as new regimes

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Make no mistake about it. The Sisi court which reversed previous court and government decisions in Egypt regarding the culpability of Hosni Mubarak and his family in cases of murder and corruption did not only come from inside Egypt. It was part of the package deal that installed Sisi in power. Saudi Arabia is now in charge of arranging and re-arranging the Arab regional order according to its wishes and the wishes of Israel. Saudi Arabia expelled Qatar’s influence from the Arab world and is now making sure, by force, coercion and diplomacy that the Qatari regime would no longer pose a threat to its influence. In Tunisia, the Saudi regime funded the As-Sibsi political party as a way to reintroduce the Ben Ali regime but without Ben Ali.

The Saudi regime generously funded the Sisi regime and ordered its close ally, the UAE, to do the same. This generous funding came at a price: that the Sisi regime would not allow the revolutionary youth fervor to launch a vendetta against Mubarak and his cronies. On the contrary, the deal ensured that Mubarak would be spared a tough sentence and be allowed to live in comfort while maintaining to the public that he is technically in a jail. But the Saudi regime would not have been able to undertake this change in Egypt and elsewhere without the full support and cooperation of Israel and the US.

The new Qatari regime seems to have accepted to take a backseat to Saudi leadership of the Arab world. The Arab counter-revolution is now in Saudi-Israeli-US hands while the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) regimes are ordered to follow suit. The emerging Arab regional order strikingly resembles the old Arab regional order. The old regimes either will be preserved or will be remodeled with cosmetic changes at the top.

This was never an “Arab spring.” The recent books by Hillary Clinton and Henry Kissinger make it very clear that the US government (and Israel, of course) will never give up that easily on its collection of potentates in the region. They will not be forced to abdicate in the name of democracy or some higher ideals. They will be protected and armed and if the popular tide goes against them, an alternative potentate will be put in place (that was the scenario of Yemen that Saudi Arabia and the US will emulate throughout the region).

The Mubarak verdict was important: the long ruling by the judge reveals the trends to come. Mubarak was found innocent but he was blamed for some corruption of people around him and also for being somewhat slow his decision-making. The number of casualties of that infamous day was lowered to make the exoneration of Mubarak less offensive.

The process of political transformation that sent in with the eruption of Arab uprising has not ended. It has been thwarted, blocked, and aborted but the process will continue. Those who are seeking change will realize that they won’t be permitted to make change peacefully and quietly. The next phase of the Arab uprising will be more violent, especially after the suppression of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood and its sponsor in Doha and Ankara won’t allow for the arming of the Brotherhood. Instead, some violent splinter groups (not necessarily Al-Qa`idah types) will emerge and exact revenge on those who determinedly prevented the peaceful and democratic victories of the Brotherhood at the ballot box.

The Arab counter-revolutionary process is now in full motion. No Arab youth movement and no Muslim Brotherhood and no talks about democracy will stand in its way. It has the full support of the US and Israel and all three partners will shape the region in the full service of the American-Israeli alliance.

But therein lays the paradox: the new regional order stands as an act of provocation against Arab youths and their dreams. If Mubarak was overthrown, his successors will be in time easier to replace and the next revolutionary leadership will learn from the past phase. Heads will roll and the Bastille will be stormed on the very first day of the uprising.

Dr. As’ad AbuKhalil is a Professor of Political Science at California State University, Stanislaus, a lecturer and the author of The Angry Arab News Service. He tweets @asadabukhalil

Comments

The return of the old regime has nothing to do with Saudi Arabia, Israel or Qatar. It has to do with the absence of a revolutionary leadership that has a vision, wide popular support and charisma.
The small fishes like Morsy and Marzouki had no power, no vision, no charisma. They were amateurs. Their temporary domination of the political space was thanks to the money that Qatar poured on its political operator, the Moslem Brotherhood with the hope that Qatar would "own" Egypt and Tunisia.

The Iranian revolution was led by a brilliant mind, with charisma and a vision, the Ayatollah Khomeini. The revolutionaries took lesson from the CIA coup that restored the Shah in 1953 after he was overthrown. They left no chance to the old regime members to prepare a counter revolution. These were either ruthlessly executed or went in exile. These radical actions were condoned by the Iranian people as they believed in Ayatollah Khomeini's vision.
The Iranian revolutionaries never asked any foreign country for help. They did it themselves.

In the Arab world, after Nasser, we have seen only weak, pathetic, hesitant and corruptible revolutionary leaders. Without intelligence and vision of the future, they fumbled among the influences of foreign countries..
As a result they managed so badly the burgeoning revolution that they allowed extremist Islamist movements to offer a vision based on extreme Islam that became acceptable to some and anathema to others.The countries were falling into social unrest and chaos. To restore order a return to a revamped version of the 'old regime' was inevitable.
We saw this in Egypt and in Tunisia. In Syria the 'old regime' hasn't gone because there has not been a single charismatic leader in the opposition with a vision for the country, except an extremist Islam. Ultimately, like in Egypt and Tunisia, the old regime will prevail in Syria.
The lesson is "Don't improvise a revolution without ensuring first that you have a strong, popular, charismatic and intelligent leader within the country that can lead it. Don't rely on foreign countries". If you don't have that, just forget it as it will turn violent and messy and end up in failure.

Prof Abu-khalil,you are clinging to a narrative that I am very much afraid never took place.That we all hate the horrors that are called head of states in the region,is something we can all agree here.If you buy the story that MB came democratically to power in Egypt,then if you are honest you should also accept that the alternative Sissi came with the free ballot votes as well.Did you ever consider that the majority of egyptians found themselves dismayed at the discourse,policy,and violence of MB?That they felt humiliated by Morsi's behavior?that they were perplexed to say the least about all the religious deviations of MB?The takfiris empowerment?Did you just for a second considered that the majority preferred the horrors of the ancient regime to the the ones unfolding in front of their eyes?
Lets have a look at Tunis.You are deprecatory regarding As-Sibsi.Pray Marzuki ,the fake "human rights"defender is so much better?Because he is leftist what ever that means unfortunately today?because he is a friend of Manna'?What about his alliance now with the salafists?What about the blood he has on his hands a/for inciting violence in Syria(you as well check your blog in 2011 when it was obvious from day one that this was going to turn very bloody)b/for sending 20 thousand of his own citizens to join the takfiri-mercenaries of Nato in Syria?He left thousand of bereft families in Tunisia and bestowed untold pain on millions of syrians.His terminating all relations with Damascus left thousand of tunisians who have been living there for the last 100 hundred years without consular assistance.
What does that say?
the returning of the deads as head of state is happening because all of these "revolutions"came( as the constructive chaos,that oxymoron that hunts us)because nobody was really prepared with a plan ,a vision for the future of the country regardless of which country,no leader emerged just opportunists.
Look at Bahrein,their revolution is advancing because they are focussed and know what they want!
When change will come it will be after maturation with a proper vision,a structured program based on freeing the country which ever it will be first and for most from foreign domination and certainly not with bogus western concepts a la freedom-human rights!
Then nobody will be able to block it,no Us,no Eu,and certainly not the zionist entity!
Never ever forget Iran's revolution regardless of its ideology and focus on its methodology instead!

Of course, as long as USA imperialists and its pals Saudi royals and Zionists are meddling in the ME, the most reactionary regimes are supported and all chances to democracy are suppressed. But the Crusaders had been mighty too - had been, that is.

The Arab counter revolution is in the hands of the U.S. Israel and Saudis.israel had a roll in Mubarak trial.i didn't know israel was that powerful.then how come,mr know it all,hasn't hizballah brought to justice in the hariri trial yet?wishful thinking and conspiracy theories don't make it so.

Yigal the Zionist i.e. colonizer of Palestine pretends that Zionist crimes are "conspiracy theories". When so-called USA "representative" are openly kissing a...s of any Zionist criminal it seems a bit not too "theoretic".
Zionists and Saudi royals were supporting their puppet in Egypt aka Mubarak even after USA rulers had stopped their support

I was thinking the same thing! The Mighty Israel is able to control the trial of Mubarak! And all the Arab countries (except of course SA, which is an ally)! And the alignment of the planets! And the amount of sauce on the kebabs of Cairo! And the music industry in Beirut! And the quality of cement in Yemen!
Okay, not the Yemen thing. That is going too far, right? The Israelis only control the PRICE of cement in Yemen.

Yes Barry. Keep exagerating but can you deny that you can't be US president nor a US politician unless you support the Zionist state? How come? How is it possible to have such a hold over US politicians? Strange that British PMs feel the same pressure!

The US is overwhelmingly pro-Israel, for different reasons. Anyone who is anti-Israel usually loses elections. That is democracy. The same way they vote out pols who raise their taxes. UK PMs just voted to recognize Palestine, which is pretty much the only foreign policy they have. So not sure where the pressure is, unless you count some people sending emails to their PMs in the days before the vote. They lost. That is how democracy works.
Tomorrow's lessons: how Jews have kept you down.

Barry the Zionist (colonizer) is telling us how "US is overwhelmingly pro-Israel" (yeah, 2 racist settlers always are kindred spirits). Barry the Zionist (colonizer) calls it "democracy" (just like aparteid Zionist colony on Palestinian land is "democracy"). When "democratic" elected Americans are jumping for Zionist masters like they never jump for their own prez, it is called "democracy". When the academic paper on Zionist lobby could not be published in "serious" USA magazine (but still could be in UK) - it is called "democracy" by Barry the Zionist (colonizer)
But the funny thing - more and more Zionists (colonizers) are whining how more and more USA Jews (esp. young) do not want to support Zionists (colonizers) So, the main support for Zionists (colonizers) in USA more and more comes not from "Jews" as Barry the Zionist (colonizer) is calling it, but from Christian anti-Semites, who support Zionism because, by their stupid dogma, when all Jews are be in "Holy land", there will be the second coming of Jesus and all Jews will be converted to Christianity or perish.
No the first time when Zionists are getting the most crazy anti-Semites to support their colonization of Palestine.

yawn.

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