The Riyadh Declaration: Seeking a Union in the Shadow of the Arab Uprisings

The idea of a ‘Gulf Union’ is not novel. It has been under consideration since the creation of the GCC in 1981. But so far a union has been out of reach, mainly due to differences in member states’ political structures, intra-Gulf rivalries and personal clashes, and the fear of forgoing sovereignty.

Yet with the recent regional uprisings, those fears may be put on the back burner in order for the monarchies to ensure their survival. This may accelerate the process of unification, or at least give it short-term popularity at the policy-making level, something this week’s major two-day GCC summit in Riyadh and the Riyadh declaration it produced was aiming at. A plan of action for tighter financial cooperation, military integration, and foreign policy assimilation was put forward.

“Our summit opens in the shadow of challenges that require vigilance and a united stance,” said Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz al Saud, current chairman of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), at the opening of the 32nd GCC Summit on Monday. The importance of the event was emphasized by the fact that all six leaders of the Gulf body were present. None opted out or sent a representative on their behalf.

"Our security and stability are threatened and we need to live up to our responsibilities," said King Abdullah, his voice quivering from age. But essentially this was a call for closing ranks across the monarchies.

What makes this particular summit unique is that it took place in the context of a year of revolutions, intifadas, and geo-strategic shifts – changes that have yet to be cemented. Despite the narrative that monarchies in the region are stable, the six member states are not immune from these changes and have had, and continue to have, internal dissent challenge the political, social, and economic status quo.

At the end of the summit, two days later, the Supreme Council of the GCC issued their “Riyadh Declaration” outlining what had been agreed upon during the discussions and closed-door meetings. It affirmed that the GCC was aligned with the tone and agenda set by King Abdullah’s opening speech.

In fact, the Declaration affirmed support for his renewed calls – calls that contained a certain sense of urgency - for a “union.” GCC Secretary General Abdullatif al-Zayani said that a body is to be formed, with each state sending three members in order to study “all aspects of the strategic move that calls for forging a single regional alliance.”

The Riyadh Declaration highlighted the types of action the GCC intends to take towards “unity.”

These steps include streamlining and tightening the regulations regarding the financial market, bruised by the financial crisis of the past few years. But the most significant of these steps relates to security and foreign policy.

The Declaration affirms the drive to further centralize and integrate defense across member states. The goal is “to build a common defense system, realizing the collective security of the GCC countries,” and intensify cooperation between intelligence services.

The idea of a joint army has already been tested with the use of the Peninsula Defense Shield, a force that intervened in Bahrain to crush protesters challenging the authority of the Bahraini monarchy. This proposal seeks to formalize a permanent Gulf army to be used in “defense” of the Gulf States.

The desire for a ‘Gulf army’ can be roughly described as having three elements. First, as shown through the experience of Bahrain, when a monarchy is threatened, the others can physically mobilize in its defense.

Secondly, there is a growing awareness among GCC members of the US’s waning capabilities on many levels – the forced departure of US troops from Iraq, its considerable economic woes, and, in the eyes of some monarchies, the lack of US support in maintaining the positions of dictators such as Hosni Mubarak.

The third motivation for a collective force derives from animosity toward and concerns over Iran – an apprehension, mainly perceived and with some historical significance, which has driven much of the GCC’s foreign policy lately.

Furthermore, the expansion of the GCC to include Jordan and Morocco and the transformation of the body to become a ‘Monarchy Club’ is clearly progressing. The two are the only other monarchies in the Arab region, outside the Gulf, and both show signs of faltering.

The challenges facing Morocco and Jordan are distressing for the GCC because, as noted above, the narrative that ‘monarchies are stable’ has been promoted and needs to be sustained for their own legitimacy in the face of change. Both Morocco and Jordan have been pledged US$2.5 billion each, while Oman and Bahrain, monarchies facing their own internal unrest, will receive US$10 billion each “to support development work.”

In terms of foreign policy, the summit’s statements reflected this new proactive and aggressive GCC: “The killing machine” in Syria was condemned while GCC members patted themselves on the back for the questionable GCC-Yemeni initiative without mentioning the violence towards protests; further assurances and importance have been placed on the need to combat terrorism; strong support for Kuwait’s position vis-à-vis Iraq has been expressed regarding the dispute over the Mubarak al-Kabeer Port; and a blunt swipe has been directly aimed at Iran, in which the GCC states called on it “to stop meddling in the internal affairs of the GCC group's members.”

And the members did not stop there with their criticism of Iran. They condemned the supposed dramatic assassination plot against the Saudi Ambassador in the United States and called for Iran to “fully cooperate” with the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA). This indicates a closer general foreign policy between the states that seek to support each other and guide developments throughout the region. Furthermore, one can clearly see a more brazen approach being adopted.

The statements regarding Palestine and Israel were slightly illuminating, particularly in terms of their place at the epicenter of the region’s political and ideological sentiments.

There were the symbolic condemnations of the Israeli colonization process in the Occupied Palestinian Territories and demands to implement the two-state solution along 1967 borders – with nary a mention of Palestinian refugees’ right of return.

Notably, the GCC suddenly remembered the Palestinians suffering in Gaza under Israeli blockade. But, rather than call for the immediate removal of the blockade, discussions revolved around promises to conduct reconstruction and development projects in the Gaza Strip.

The devil is always in the details and the statements, generally, have been vague in terms of how a comprehensive “union” will be made. A number of analysts, experts, and commentators have hailed these announcements as suggesting serious steps may finally be taken. But others are more cautious – pointing to the essential differences in the political structure of each member state and the possibility that the fragile alliance between these states may fracture under the weight of personal vendettas and policy differences.

However, one thing is certain. All GCC states are apprehensive about the Arab uprisings, especially as protests and internal dissent has been stirring and growing within their own borders – this is especially so in regards to Saudi Arabia with the growing civil disobedience campaigns and demonstrations mainly focused in the Eastern Province. The summit’s statements and decisions point to an acute awareness of this anxiety.

The question remains – will the aggressive positions of the GCC actually ensure their members’ survival or will it augment the problems inherent and hasten change?

Only time – and the movements on the streets – will tell.