1630947_Profile of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange

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From sean.noonan@stratfor.com
To scott.stewart@stratfor.com
Others MessageId: <1344838492.484396.1287978009002.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com>
InReplyTo: 010f01cb739f$0b341cb0$219c5610$@stewart@stratfor.com
Text
yeah. he gave a great demonstration of that in this interview:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2010/10/24/2010-10-24_wikileaks...

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From: "scott stewart"
To: "Sean Noonan"
Sent: Sunday, October 24, 2010 1:15:22 PM
Subject: RE: Profile of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange

He is a delusional nut.

From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
On Behalf Of Sean Noonan
Sent: Sunday, October 24, 2010 11:56 AM
To: Analyst List
Subject: Re: Profile of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange

his ego will be his downfall

On 10/24/10 9:51 AM, Nate Hughes wrote:

October 23, 2010
WikiLeaks Founder on the Run, Trailed by Notoriety
By JOHN F. BURNS and RAVI SOMAIYA LONDON a** Julian Assange moves like a hunted man. In a noisy Ethiopian restaurant in Londona**s rundown Paddington district, he pitches his voice barely above a whisper to foil the Western intelligence agencies he fears.

He demands that his dwindling number of loyalists use expensive encrypted cellphones and swaps his own as other men change shirts. He checks into hotels under false names, dyes his hair, sleeps on sofas and floors, and uses cash instead of credit cards, often borrowed from friends.

a**By being determined to be on this path, and not to compromise, Ia**ve wound up in an extraordinary situation,a** Mr. Assange said over lunch last Sunday, when he arrived sporting a woolen beanie and a wispy stubble and trailing a youthful entourage that included a filmmaker assigned to document any unpleasant surprises.

In his remarkable journey to notoriety, Mr. Assange, founder of the WikiLeaks whistle-blowersa** Web site, sees the next few weeks as his most hazardous. Now he is making his most brazen disclosure yet: 391,832 secret documents on the Iraqi war. He held a news conference in London on Saturday, saying that the release a**constituted the most comprehensive and detailed account of any war ever to have entered the public record.a**

Twelve weeks ago, he posted on his organizationa**s Web site some 77,000 classified Pentagon documents on the Afghan conflict.

Much has changed since 2006, when Mr. Assange, a 39-year-old Australian, used years of computer hacking and what friends call a near genius I.Q. to establish WikiLeaks, redefining whistle-blowing by gathering secrets in bulk, storing them beyond the reach of governments and others determined to retrieve them, then releasing them instantly, and globally.

Now it is not just governments that denounce him: some of his own comrades are abandoning him for what they see as erratic and imperious behavior, and a nearly delusional grandeur unmatched by an awareness that the digital secrets he reveals can have a price in flesh and blood.

Several WikiLeaks colleagues say he alone decided to release the Afghan documents without removing the names of Afghan intelligence sources for NATO troops. a**We were very, very upset with that, and with the way he spoke about it afterwards,a** said Birgitta Jonsdottir, a core WikiLeaks volunteer and a member of Icelanda**s Parliament. a**If he could just focus on the important things he does, it would be better.a**

He is also being investigated in connection with accusations of rape and molestation involving two Swedish women. Mr. Assange has denied the allegations, saying the relations were consensual. But prosecutors in Sweden have yet to formally approve charges or dismiss the case eight weeks after the complaints against Mr. Assange were filed, damaging his quest for a secure base for himself and WikiLeaks. Though he characterizes the claims as a**a smear campaign,a** the scandal has compounded the pressures of his cloaked life.

a**When it comes to the point where you occasionally look forward to being in prison on the basis that you might be able to spend a day reading a book, the realization dawns that perhaps the situation has become a little more stressful than you would like,a** he said over the London lunch.

Exposing Secrets

Mr. Assange has come a long way from an unsettled childhood in Australia as a self-acknowledged social misfit who narrowly avoided prison after being convicted on 25 charges of computer hacking in 1995. History is punctuated by spies, defectors and others who revealed the most inflammatory secrets of their age. Mr. Assange has become that figure for the Internet era, with as yet unreckoned consequences for himself and for the keepers of the worlda**s secrets.

a**Ia**ve been waiting 40 years for someone to disclose information on a scale that might really make a difference,a** said Daniel Ellsberg, who exposed a 1,000-page secret study of the Vietnam War in 1971 that became known as the Pentagon Papers.

Mr. Ellsberg said he saw kindred spirits in Mr. Assange and Pfc. Bradley Manning, the 22-year-old former Army intelligence operative under detention in Quantico, Va., suspected of leaking the Iraq and Afghan documents.

a**They were willing to go to prison for life, or be executed, to put out this information,a** Mr. Ellsberg said.

Underlying Mr. Assangea**s anxieties is deep uncertainty about what the United States and its allies may do next. Pentagon and Justice department officials have said they are weighing his actions under the 1917 Espionage Act. They have demanded that Mr. Assange a**returna** all government documents in his possession, undertake not to publish any new ones and not a**solicita** further American materials.

Mr. Assange has responded by going on the run, but has found no refuge. Amid the Afghan documents controversy, he flew to Sweden, seeking a residence permit and protection under that countrya**s broad press freedoms. His initial welcome was euphoric.

a**They called me the James Bond of journalism,a** he recalled wryly. a**It got me a lot of fans, and some of them ended up causing me a bit of trouble.a**

Within days, his liaisons with two Swedish women led to an arrest warrant on charges of rape and molestation. Karin Rosander, a spokesperson for the prosecutor, said last week that the police were continuing to investigate.

In late September, he left Stockholm for Berlin. A bag he checked on the almost empty flight disappeared, with three encrypted laptops. It has not resurfaced; Mr. Assange suspects it was intercepted. From Germany, he traveled to London, wary at being detained on arrival. Under British law, his Australian passport entitles him to remain for six months. Iceland, another country with generous press freedoms and a strong WikiLeaks following, has also lost its appeal, with Mr. Assange concluding that its government, like Britaina**s, is too easily influenced by Washington. In his native Australia, ministers have signaled their willingness to cooperate with the United States if it opens a prosecution. Mr. Assange said a senior Australian official told him, a**You play outside the rules, and you will be dealt with outside the rules.a**

He faces attack from within, too.

After the Sweden scandal, strains within WikiLeaks reached a breaking point, with some of Mr. Assangea**s closest collaborators publicly defecting. The New York Times spoke with dozens of people who have worked with and supported him in Iceland, Sweden, Germany, Britain and the United States. What emerged was a picture of the founder of WikiLeaks as its prime innovator and charismatic force but as someone whose growing celebrity has been matched by an increasingly dictatorial, eccentric and capricious style.

Internal Turmoil

Effectively, as Mr. Assange pursues his fugitivea**s life, his leadership is enforced over the Internet. Even remotely, his style is imperious. In an online exchange with one volunteer, a transcript of which was obtained by The Times, he warned that WikiLeaks would disintegrate without him. a**Wea**ve been in a Unity or Death situation for a few months now,a** he said.

When Herbert Snorrason, a 25-year-old political activist in Iceland, questioned Mr. Assangea**s judgment over a number of issues in an online exchange last month, Mr. Assange was uncompromising. a**I dona**t like your tone,a** he said, according to a transcript. a**If it continues, youa**re out.a**

Mr. Assange cast himself as indispensable. a**I am the heart and soul of this organization, its founder, philosopher, spokesperson, original coder, organizer, financier, and all the rest,a** he said. a**If you have a problem with me,a** he told Mr. Snorrason, using an expletive, he should quit.

In an interview about the exchange, Mr. Snorrasona**s conclusion was stark. a**He is not in his right mind,a** he said. In London, Mr. Assange was dismissive of all those who have criticized him. a**These are not consequential people,a** he said.

a**About a dozena** disillusioned volunteers have left recently, said Smari McCarthy, an Icelandic volunteer who has distanced himself in the recent turmoil. In late summer, Mr. Assange suspended Daniel Domscheit-Berg, a German who had been the WikiLeaks spokesman under the pseudonym Daniel Schmitt, accusing him of unspecified a**bad behavior.a** Many more activists, Mr. McCarthy said, are likely to follow.

Mr. Assange denied that any important volunteers had quit, apart from Mr. Domscheit-Berg. But further defections could paralyze an organization that Mr. Assange says has 40 core volunteers and about 800 mostly unpaid followers to maintain a diffuse web of computer servers and to secure the system against attack a** to guard against the kind of infiltration that WikiLeaks itself has used to generate its revelations.

Mr. Assangea**s detractors also accuse him of pursuing a vendetta against the United States. In London, Mr. Assange said America was an increasingly militarized society and a threat to democracy. Moreover, he said, a**we have been attacked by the United States, so we are forced into a position where we must defend ourselves.a**

Even among those challenging Mr. Assangea**s leadership style, there is recognition that the intricate computer and financial architecture WikiLeaks uses to shield it against its enemies has depended on its founder. a**Hea**s very unique and extremely capable,a** said Ms. Jonsdottir, the Icelandic lawmaker.

A Rash of Scoops

Before posting the documents on Afghanistan and Iraq, WikiLeaks enjoyed a string of coups.

Supporters were thrilled when the organization posted documents on the GuantA!namo Bay detention operation, the contents of Sarah Palina**s personal Yahoo email account, reports of extrajudicial killings in Kenya and East Timor, the membership rolls of the neo-Nazi British National Party and a combat video showing American Apache helicopters in Baghdad in 2007 gunning down at least 12 people, including two Reuters journalists.

But now, WikiLeaks has been met with new doubts. Amnesty International and Reporters Without Borders have joined the Pentagon in criticizing the organization for risking peoplea**s lives by publishing war logs identifying Afghans working for the Americans or acting as informers.

A Taliban spokesman in Afghanistan using the pseudonym Zabiullah Mujahid said in a telephone interview that the Taliban had formed a nine-member a**commissiona** after the Afghan documents were posted a**to find about people who are spying.a** He said the Taliban had a a**wanteda** list of 1,800 Afghans and was comparing that with names WikiLeaks provided.

a**After the process is completed, our Taliban court will decide about such people,a** he said.
Mr. Assange defended posting unredacted documents, saying he balanced his decision a**with the knowledge of the tremendous good and prevention of harm that is causeda** by putting the information into the public domain. a**There are no easy choices on the table for this organization,a** he said.

But if Mr. Assange is sustained by his sense of mission, faith is fading among his fellow conspirators. His mood was caught vividly in an exchange on Sept. 20 with another senior WikiLeaks figure. In an encrypted online chat, a transcript of which was passed to The Times, Mr. Assange was dismissive of his colleagues. He described them as a**a confederacy of fools,a** and asked his interlocutor, a**Am I dealing with a complete retard?a**

In London, Mr. Assange was angered when asked about the rifts. He responded testily to questions about WikiLeaksa**s opaque finances, Private Manninga**s fate and WikiLeaksa**s apparent lack of accountability to anybody but himself, calling the questions a**cretinous,a** a**facilea** and reminiscent of a**kindergarten.a**

Mr. Assange has been equivocal about Private Manning, talking in late summer as though the soldier was unavoidable collateral damage, much like the Afghans named as informers in the secret Pentagon documents.

But in London, he took a more sympathetic view, describing Private Manning as a a**political prisonera** facing a jail term of up to 52 years, without confirming that he was the source of the disclosed war logs. a**We have a duty to assist Mr. Manning and other people who are facing legal and other consequences,a** he said.

Mr. Assangea**s own fate seems as imperiled as Private Manninga**s. Last Monday, the Swedish Migration Board said Mr. Assangea**s bid for a residence permit had been rejected. His British visa will expire early next year. When he left the London restaurant at twilight, heading into the shadows, he declined to say where he was going. The man who has put some of the worlda**s most powerful institutions on his watch list was, once more, on the move.
Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington, and Dexter Filkins from Kabul, Afghanistan.

--

Nathan Hughes
Director
Military Analysis
STRATFOR
www.stratfor.com

--

Sean Noonan

Tactical Analyst

Office: +1 512-279-9479

Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

www.stratfor.com

--
Sean Noonan
Tactical Analyst
Office: +1 512-279-9479
Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
www.stratfor.com

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