3652040_: [alpha] INSIGHT - BAHRAIN/GCC/IRAN - Details on GCC troop movements in Bahrain - ME1*

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: [alpha] INSIGHT - BAHRAIN/GCC/IRAN - Details on GCC troop movements in Bahrain - ME1*
Date 2011-09-22 00:55:25
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sorry, i forgot the Iranian part. see below

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From: "Marc Lanthemann"
To: "alpha List"
Sent: Wednesday, September 21, 2011 5:51:14 PM
Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - BAHRAIN/GCC/IRAN - Details on GCC troop
movements in Bahrain - ME1*

[REVA] There are three source reports below - 1 from the Saudi, trying to
downplay the whole troop movement; 2 - from the Iranian trying to
exaggerate the whole troop movement; 3 - from a UAE source, who gives a
clearer picture of what happened

major takeaway is, GCC is nervous and they want to avoid another violent
crackdown that could backfire, but Iran seems to still be under
constraints.

I'm working with Ashley on drafting up a Bahrain piece with this insight
included

SOURCE: sub-source via ME1
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Saudi diplomat
PUBLICATION: Yes
SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
ITEM CREDIBILITY: C - trying to downplay the whole thing
SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

He concurs that there has been recent troop movement, but that this was
routine troop rotation. He added, however, that should need arise KSA will
not hesitate to send additional troops to Bahrain to maintain law and
order. The source does not expect the security situation in Bahrain to go
out of control. He implicates Iran, although he believes Iran is careful
not to antagonize the GCC countries.

SOURCE: sub-source via ME1
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Iranian diplomat
PUBLICATION: Yes
SOURCE RELIABILITY: C
ITEM CREDIBILITY: C - trying to embellish the whole thing
SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
600 Saudi troops have just crossed the causeway. Iranian intelligence
reports indicate that the troops originated from the Hafr al-Batin
military base. He says he is unaware of any recent UAE troop movement, but
expects such troops to cross into Bahrain tonight. The recent Saudi troop
deployment brings the total to 1300 soldiers. In addition, the saudis have
stationed four Kawasaki-Vertol helicopters at Dhahran air base to be ready
for emergency troop deployment.

SOURCE: sub-source via ME1
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: UAE diplomat
PUBLICATION: Yes
SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
He confirms that Saudi troops have entered Bahrain last night, but he says
the number of 600 troops is exaggerated. He says the troops that crossed
the causeway last night did not exceed 200 men. There were no tanks but
APCs and police vehicles, especially for riot control. They were all
Saudis. He confirms that they came from the Hafr al-Batin military base.
He says it is also true that the Saudis have put on alert four helicopters
in Dhahran air base for rapid deployment. The number of Peninsula Shield
troops in Saudi Arabia before the most recent entry was about 500 men ,
and that nearly 400 of them were saudis. HThe number of UAE troops does
not exceed 50. The security situation in Bahrain is under control. Before
scaling down the number of GCC troops in Bahrain at the end of June, the
government of Bahrain recruited about 2000 men in its security apparatus.
The recruits included Yemenis, Syrians, Iraqis from al-Anbar and
Pakistanis, mostly Baluch.

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