5280279_Re: ME1 on Beirut

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Re: ME1 on Beirut
Date 2009-04-01 17:16:36
From Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com
To burton@stratfor.com
Others InReplyTo: 20090401151223.613CC1CC0F26@core.stratfor.com
Do we know anyone at the embassy in Beirut? Family members there are
restricted to the compound and have to have a security detail when leaving
the compound to go into the city. Is that just a leftover of the hostage
problems of the past? Seems like a whole lot of trouble for a city that
ME1 says is that safe....

Fred Burton wrote:

There is a gap between established threat levels and conditions on the
ground. I would compare an "established threat level" to a "theory" in
terms of its reconstruction of reality. Beirut is safer than Cairo or
Istanbul. It is a whole lot safer at night than any major US city.
Beirut residents are security conscious people. Over the years they have
developed their own survival strategy. If there is a demonstration, you
stay clear of its curse. If there is fighting (such as the events of
last year's May, people simply stay at home. I am a resident of Beirut
and I see no reason for alarm. I have three young American female
students in my seminar and they lead a normal life in Beirut.


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