5441681_Fwd: Re: Assad & Syria

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Date 2011-09-01 21:10:00
From Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com
To burton@stratfor.com
Others InReplyTo: 4E5FD856.6000008@stratfor.com
I don't have a number for him, but we can create one -- should he be
IL701? Or is he not in Israel now?

On 9/1/11 3:09 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

I don't know if he has a # or not, feel free to assign him one if desired. He's former IDF MI.

On 9/1/2011 2:08 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

Does he have source info? Want this posted?

On 9/1/11 12:54 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

-------- Original Message --------

Subject: Re: Assad & Syria
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2011 10:33:26 -0700
From: David Dafinoiu
To: Fred Burton

Hi Fred,

Many "international" analysts think that since Syria is the only nation who attacked Israel in the Six Day War and still technically at war with Israel, Assad may launch some sort of attack on Israel in an effort to force an Israeli retaliation with the goal of dragging the other Arab and Muslim nations to his defense. This is a possible scenario, and if it will happen it is just for the reason of dragging Iran into a trap.

In reality, Assad is the Western agent in the Iranian and Russian back yard. He is well protected by both Mossad and MI6. He and his father have kept stability along the Syrian and Israeli border since the last war in 1973.

Al-Assad is an Alawite, and his regime has constantly repressed radical Islam. At the same time, his regime has been powerful protector of Christians in Syria. Christians represent about 10 percent of the Syrian population, the second largest Christian community in the ME after Israel.

The real enemy of Assad these days is Turkey and its government which is funded by the Muslim Brotherhood. The Turks hope that as a NATO member they will be allowed to invade Syria and take over and manage part of Syrian land. Syria just deployed 25 anti-air missile batteries along its Turkish border.

There is a big possibility that Syria attacks Israel and Iran will jump in the game to help them out. Whatever happens in the next weeks or months, in my opinion Assad will remain in power for at least another year.

Best, David

On Thu, Sep 1, 2011 at 7:51 AM, Fred Burton

Hello David,

What are your thoughts on Assad's next move? Does he throw in the
and flee?

Thanks, Fred


David Dafinoiu

NorAm Intelligence
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