944505_[alpha] INSIGHT - Syria/HZ - HZ cooperating on STL against Syria - ME1

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[alpha] INSIGHT - Syria/HZ - HZ cooperating on STL against Syria - ME1
Date 2011-08-05 20:55:09
From allison.fedirka@stratfor.com
To alpha@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:alpha@stratfor.com
MessageId: <306193242.375416.1312570509714.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com>
InReplyTo: 472394714.375374.1312570306079.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com
PUBLICATION: background/analysis
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: International law expert involved in STL via ME1
Reliability : B

** I find this interesting. Although, if you're HZ, then you don't really
have the luxury of distancing yourself from Syria..

Hizbullah is secretly cooperating with the STL. They are providing the STL
with information that demonstrate the innocence of the four HZ members
indicted in Rafiq Hariri's assassination in 2005. HZ evidence aims at
implicating the staunchly pro-Damascus Syrian National and Social Party
(SNSP) in the assassination. There is already plenty of evidence to
implicate the SNSP in the assassination of Pierre Gemayyil in 2006 and the
assassination attempts on Marwan Hmade in 2004 and Elias el Murr in 2006.
HZ is trying to demonstrate that there is criminological evidence to link
these three cases to Hariri's assassination.

HZ's cooperation with the STL signals a major development. HZ could have
presented such evidence before the issuance of the indictments and
possibly altered the outcome of the STL course of investigation. This
unexpected cooperation reveals HZ anger at Damascus for leaving them alone
to face the consequences of Hariri's assassination. This points to the
deterioration of the relationship between HZ and Syria. He says it appears
as if HZ is sensing that the weakening of Asad's regime will eventually
lead to its demise. Therefore, they want to preempt by trying to
dissociate themselves from the assassination and implicating the SNSP,
Syria's closest ally in Lebanon.


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